Whither the Migration of Monarch Butterflies?

Though the number of butterflies in general was radically down this summer, I still saw the occasional monarch. Some appeared frantic. Were they searching in vain for a mate? Other times they'd pause on a flower to take a long drink of nectar. Sometimes I'd just see a flash of orange out of the corner of my eye. No other butterfly can match a monarch's nimble power in flight. The number of sightings, maybe ten in all, wasn't much changed from previous years.

Their longterm prospects, though, are very much in question. Chip Taylor, who has tracked migrations as closely and for as long as anyone, says that monarchs as a species will survive, but their fabulous migration will not. Last year's overwintering numbers on Oyamel fir trees in the mountains of Mexico was the second lowest ever recorded. Resilient as the monarchs are, it's hard to imagine the delicate dynamic of migration surviving the rapidly increasing disruptions of climate change.

Yes, climate has changed in the past. It's said that, before humans started altering the atmosphere, the earth experienced a progression of ice ages every 100,000 years or so. During the last ice age, glaciers extended south almost to what is now NY City. What we have now is much faster change, as our machines pour a massive overdose of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

In a blog entry this past August, Taylor explained how extremes of weather can affect the monarchs' capacity to build numbers over the summer and migrate back to Mexico in the fall. Extended heavy rains in early summer can delay egg laying. Warmer temperatures in September and drought in October can impede a fall migration historically aided by cool winds out of the north. What we got this year was hot and dry, with three months of drought and warm weather extending into mid-November. That's a radical departure from anything I've ever witnessed.

Each year towards the end of October, I start looking for news about the migration south to Mexico. The first headline I found confirmed my suspicions: "This fall's monarch butterfly migration through Texas doesn't look promising." Then, finally, a report on-site at the roosting grounds in Mexico. Though a few had been straggling in over the past few weeks, the first largish group of 2000 monarchs wasn't reported until Nov. 21. In past years, monarchs would predictably arrive en masse in the first week of November. Then, after the monarchs had settled into their roosts, the Biosphere Reserve would be opened to tourists mid-month. This year that opening was cancelled, stranding those tourists who had traveled far to witness a unique example of nature's splendor. This is not the only destination being compromised in a world being heated in part by global tourism. There are different ways to show love for nature. Touristic love, which I was a part of in the past, becomes more ironic by the minute.

The radically dry, warm weather we've experience this fall has a lot to do with the increasing instability of the jet stream--high winds out of the west that normally feed us a steady stream of contrasting weather, but can get blocked and diverted north or south, causing weather systems to linger indefinitely. The jet stream is driven by the difference in temperature between the tropics and the arctic. As the arctic heats more quickly than lower latitudes, the temperature gradient is reduced and the jet stream becomes more malleable. 

Consider the extraordinary ambition and brilliance of the monarch butterfly's eastern migration. Huddled overwinter in the mountains of Mexico, its numbers head north in March, then each succeeding generation--usually four total--fans out from Texas to harvest the richness of flowers and milkweed foliage from the whole eastern half of the U.S. and even up into Canada, before somehow knowing how to navigate all of that embodied richness back to their little hideout in Mexico. Over the past million years, the distance flown would have contracted during ice ages, then expanded as the glaciers withdrew. I think of the monarch migration as akin to a rubber band, stretched northward by the supply of nectar and milkweed, then contracting back down to Mexico for the winter.

The vast territorial expansion each summer is surely dependent on numbers. Otherwise, how will the monarchs find each other to mate as they spread out across the continent? Though much different in behavior, the passenger pigeon was also dependent on big numbers. Its demise, more than a century ago, was due to radical habitat change and a wanton harvest and slaughter that Aldo Leopold described as "trigger-itch." Now, our itch is to take photos, and our intention is to preserve. And yet, we watch as the collateral damage of a machine-driven economy accumulates.

A post on the Monarch Watch Blog describes the Symbolic Monarch Migration that school kids in Mexico, the U.S., and Canada take part in. Kids in Mexico send paper monarchs to kids up north in the spring, and vice versa in the fall. Monarchs ignore country boundaries. They are telling anyone who takes time to listen that our interests don't stop at the border, what we do affects people and nature far away. 

One halcyon autumn day when I was a kid, walking across the broad lawns surrounding Yerkes Observatory in Wisconsin, I was astonished by the sight of countless thousands of monarchs flying above me. There was a thrilling collective energy to their flight, not dutifully unidirectional towards the south but instead more like a dance. They seemed to feed off of each other's proximity and energy--an uncanny mix of whimsy, skill, and determination. 

If the great migration were to be lost, monarchs would still persist in pockets further south. Here's a post on how the loss of migration's rigors would change them.